Barak Gila, see barakgila.com for more of my writing
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Each race is listed in the order it appears on my ballot. I’ve sometimes listed not just how I’m voting, but reasons for which you might vote differently.
This race has been a mess. Eric Swalwell, a former front-runner, withdrew his candidacy after multiple women accused him of sexual harrassment. Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom has not endorsed in the race, having various personal beefs and issues with the Democratic candidates. There are also exactly two prominent Republicans, and it is plausible, although no longer likely, that they would both be the top-two candidates leaving an all-GOP general election in June.
Matt Mahan is the best serious candidate in the race. He has been effective as Mayor of San José, increasing trust in government and reducing unsheltered homelessness. He also has no union support, allowing him to run as a reformer and in a more moderate lane. He’ll still give the base some “gas tax holiday” slop, but he does not support the incredibly poorly-designed one-time billionaire tax which may be on the ballot in June. He also supported popular-among-voters-though-not-Dem-elite policies like Prop 36 in 2024 to increase penalties for drug crimes and thefts in CA. See my report from last month for more of his policies and persona.
Unfortunately, though he’s ~doubled in the polls in the last month, that’s only to ~9%, and he only has an 8% on the Kalshi prediction market. So, in this case, I have a #2 recommendation for pragmatic voters that don’t want their vote to go to waste: Tom Steyer.
Tom Steyer is a billionaire founder of a successful hedge fund, who instantiates the logical culmination of the far left’s stance that raising money from any external sources is icky: the only pure candidates they have left are, ironically, the ultra-rich. Steyer has been running on an unabashedly left-leaning platform, including abolishing ICE. He’s also the most pro-housing (he has the YIMBY Action endorsement) and by far the smartest of the two leading Democrats in the race.
His opponent, currently leading in polls, is Xavier Becerra. As far as I can tell, Becerra is the most machine of machine Dems in CA right now. He’s running in a “center of the party” liberal-but-not-as-leftist lane with support from unions. His chief of staff and several other staffers were arrested and changed with federal crimes last fall; he proposes freezing state home insurance rates, which would drive more insurers out of the state.
For governor, vote Matt Mahan, unless you’re either very liberal or worried about wasting your vote, in which case vote Tom Steyer.
There are only 3 candidates for Lieutenant Governor that have raised/spent enough money to be running a serious race. Of these, Josh Fryday has the most pro-housing / transit policy positions and support from younger Dem groups and GrowSF, and I’m supporting him. The Lieutenant Governor position is largely ceremonial and serves as a stepping stone to higher office; at least, it did for Gavin Newsom, so you should vote for whoever you would most like to see as Governor or Senator, not necessarily based on any specific campaign promises.
Regarding the other two serious candidates, Michael Tubbs, running farther left, is notable for piloting a universal basic income experiment as the Mayor of Stockton, and has support from some progressive politicians and the cursed SEIU union (the one pushing for the 5% one-time billionaire tax ballot prop). Fiona Ma seems mainly endorsed by labor groups.
Weber is the incumbent in the seat and will win reelection as the only Democrat in the race. GrowSF approves of her job performance, too.
Malia Cohen will also win reelection as the only Democrat in the race. GrowSF approves of her job performance, too.